Breeding goals & design

Development and validation of a bioeconomic simulation model for estimating economic values in South American Camelids

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Abstract

The objective of this study was to develop and validate a bioeconomic simulation model designed to estimate marginal economic values (MEV) and relative economic values (REV) for traits in domestic South American Camelids raised in pastoral systems in the Peruvian highlands. Although bioeconomic simulation models are being developed for cattle and sheep pastoral production systems, none exist for alpaca and llama production systems. A deterministic-stochastic model was implemented in Microsoft Excel 2019, integrating Markov chain herd dynamics across 38 female and 15 male reproductive states over a 20-year simulation horizon. The model was calibrated using five years of technical and economic records from a communal cooperative in Pasco, Peru. Fifteen traits for alpacas and 13 for llamas were evaluated, focusing on growth, carcass traits, fiber quality, fiber production, reproductive traits, survival, longevity, and animal quality (assessed in categories by visual appraisal). MEVs were calculated using finite difference quotients (±0.5% variation), while REVs were derived by multiplying MEVs by their genetic standard deviations. Two scenarios for alpaca (baseline vs selling fiber by quality fiber category) and two for llama (baseline vs reduction of conception rate by 10%). The fiber categorization scenario increased net benefit by 19% and profitability by 1.98%, with fiber diameter showing the highest REV (33.07%), followed by fleece weight (14.34%). In llamas, a 10% reduction in conception rate decreased net benefit by 23%. In both llama scenarios, the animal quality category showed the highest REV (35-36%), followed by the adult female conception rate (20-21%). Additionally, functional traits contributed 30-40% of total REV across both species. In conclusion, this model established the first bioeconomic simulation framework for defining breeding objectives in alpacas and llamas

Keywords: 2026

How to Cite:

Damas, R., Gutiérrez, G. & Wurzinger, M., (2026) “Development and validation of a bioeconomic simulation model for estimating economic values in South American Camelids”, World Congress on Genetics Applied to Livestock Production Digital Archive 2026(1): 2287399. doi: https://doi.org/10.31274/wcgalp.24617

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